Can You Pass a Prop Firm Challenge?
Find out your probability of passing before you pay the fee. Enter your stats, pick your prop firm, and run 10,000 simulated challenges with real drawdown rules.
Challenge Parameters
Your Trading Stats
Hit Run Simulation to see your results
More Than a Pass/Fail Calculator
Most calculators use a single formula. This one runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with real prop firm rules, including trailing drawdown and daily loss limits.
Real prop firm rules
Built-in presets for Apex, FTMO, and Topstep with correct profit targets, drawdown limits, and trading days. Or set custom parameters for any firm.
Trailing & static drawdown
Toggle between trailing drawdown (floor rises with peaks) and static drawdown (fixed floor) to match how your prop firm actually calculates risk.
Daily loss limit tracking
Set a per-day loss limit and see how many simulated attempts fail from a single bad day versus hitting max drawdown over time.
Sensitivity analysis
See how your pass rate changes across different win rates. Know your margin of safety — or how close you are to the edge.
EV & profit factor
Live expected value and profit factor calculations update as you adjust inputs, so you can see your mathematical edge before running the sim.
10,000 Monte Carlo iterations
Each simulation runs 10,000 randomized challenge attempts and displays sample equity curves, risk of ruin, and 90th-percentile best case outcomes.
Built-in presets for Apex Trader Funding, FTMO, Topstep, My Funded Futures, FundedNext, Take Profit Trader, Tradeify, and Lucid Trading — or configure custom rules for any prop firm evaluation.
Frequently Asked Questions
A prop firm challenge simulator uses your real trading statistics — like win rate, average win, and average loss — to estimate how likely you are to pass a proprietary trading firm evaluation. Instead of guessing, you get a data-driven probability based on thousands of simulated trading scenarios.
The simulator runs a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations using your inputs. The results are statistically reliable given the inputs you provide. However, real-world outcomes also depend on factors like psychology, slippage, and changing market conditions that no model can fully capture. Think of the result as a strong estimate, not a guarantee.
Static drawdown sets a fixed dollar floor below your starting balance — your account fails if equity drops below that floor, regardless of how high your balance has grown. Trailing drawdown raises the floor as your equity reaches new highs, so profits tighten the margin for error. Apex uses trailing drawdown, FTMO uses static drawdown, and Topstep uses trailing drawdown with a daily loss limit. This simulator models both types accurately.
You need your win rate (percentage of trades that are profitable), your average winning trade size, and your average losing trade size. If you track your trades with a journal, you already have these numbers. If not, review your last 50–100 trades to calculate them.
The simulator includes built-in presets for Apex Trader Funding, FTMO, Topstep, My Funded Futures, FundedNext, Take Profit Trader, Tradeify, and Lucid Trading. Each preset uses the correct profit target, drawdown type, daily loss limit, and trading days for that firm. You can also set custom parameters to match any prop firm not listed.
A Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that runs thousands of random scenarios based on your inputs to estimate the probability of different outcomes. In this tool, each scenario simulates a full challenge attempt using your win rate, average win, and average loss to determine whether you would hit the profit target or the drawdown limit first.
The sensitivity table shows how your pass rate changes if your win rate is slightly higher or lower than expected. It runs separate simulations at your current win rate plus and minus 5% and 10%, so you can see how sensitive your results are to small changes in performance. This helps you understand your margin of safety.