Can You Pass a Prop Firm Challenge?
Free Prop Firm Simulator
Enter your stats and run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations against the actual drawdown rules of Apex, FTMO, Topstep, and every major prop firm. See your pass probability before you pay the evaluation fee.
Challenge Parameters
Your Trading Stats
Advanced
Controls trade-size spread around your avg. 0 = every trade exactly avg (clean math). 0.5 = typical retail trader. 1.0+ = runner-heavy / high-variance strategies.
Hit Run Simulation to see your results
Why Run a Prop Firm Simulator Before You Pay the Eval Fee
The eval fees are real money. A 50k Apex evaluation, an FTMO Challenge, or a Topstep Combine each runs somewhere between $150 and $600 per evaluation. Across the industry, roughly 90% of traders fail evaluation. The math is brutal: most people pay the fee, blow the account in three weeks, and pay again. A prop firm simulator is the cheapest way to find out which side of that 90% you land on before the money leaves your wallet.
If your strategy can't pass a Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 attempts, it has long odds in real life. Real evaluations add slippage, commissions, and the psychology of trading scared money on top of the same math. A simulator that bakes in trailing drawdown, daily loss limits, and trade-size variance is the closest you can get to a free preview of the eval.
Three things our prop firm simulator tells you that no spreadsheet will:
- Your honest pass probability. Not a vague “you have an edge” thumbs-up. A percentage, based on 10,000 randomized challenge attempts using your win rate, average win, and average loss.
- How fragile your edge is. The sensitivity table shows what happens if your win rate is 5% or 10% lower than you think. Most traders are slightly worse than they assume.
- Whether drawdown rules will catch you. Trailing drawdown punishes traders who hit a peak early and give it back. The simulator models this for every firm that uses it.
More Than a Pass/Fail Calculator
Most calculators use a single formula. This one runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with real prop firm rules, including trailing drawdown and daily loss limits.
Real prop firm rules
Built-in presets for Apex, FTMO, and Topstep with correct profit targets, drawdown limits, and trading days. Or set custom parameters for any firm.
Trailing & static drawdown
Toggle between trailing drawdown (floor rises with peaks) and static drawdown (fixed floor) to match how your prop firm actually calculates risk.
Daily loss limit tracking
Set a per-day loss limit and see how many simulated attempts fail from a single bad day versus hitting max drawdown over time.
Sensitivity analysis
See how your pass rate changes across different win rates. Know your margin of safety — or how close you are to the edge.
EV & profit factor
Live expected value and profit factor calculations update as you adjust inputs, so you can see your mathematical edge before running the sim.
10,000 Monte Carlo iterations
Each simulation runs 10,000 randomized challenge attempts and displays sample equity curves, risk of ruin, and 90th-percentile best case outcomes.
Built-in presets for Apex Trader Funding, FTMO, Topstep, My Funded Futures, FundedNext, Take Profit Trader, Tradeify, and Lucid Trading — or configure custom rules for any prop firm evaluation.
Monte Carlo Simulation, Calibrated for Real Prop Firm Rules
Trading isn't deterministic. Real outcomes depend on the order of wins and losses, the size of each trade, and which rule trips first. A Monte Carlo simulation is the only way to honestly model that path-dependence, and prop firm rules are about as path-dependent as it gets.
Our prop firm Monte Carlo simulator runs 10,000 independent challenge attempts every time you click Run. Each attempt is a fresh sequence of trades drawn from your statistics: win rate, average win, average loss, and the dispersion of trade sizes around those averages. Some attempts get lucky and clear the profit target in five days. Some hit a drawdown limit on day one. The pass rate you see is the simple fraction that made it through, exactly as if you had run the evaluation ten thousand times.
Why a Monte Carlo simulation matters for a prop firm challenge specifically:
- Trailing drawdown is path-dependent. Whether you fail depends on whether your peak P&L came before or after a losing streak. Closed-form formulas can't model this. Simulation can.
- Daily loss limits punish bad days, not bad trades. A single high-variance loss day can blow an account that would have passed comfortably otherwise. The Monte Carlo run sees those days.
- Variance is the silent killer. Two traders with identical win rates can have wildly different pass rates if one trades with consistent sizing while the other has occasional outlier losses. The simulator's variance setting captures this directly.
The result: a pass probability number you can trust, plus a sensitivity table that shows how much that probability moves if your real win rate is slightly higher or lower than expected.
Built for Every Major Prop Firm
Every prop firm has a different combination of profit target, drawdown rule, daily loss limit, and number of trading days. Generic prop firm calculators ignore those differences. Our prop firm simulator includes built-in presets for the firms that matter, each configured to the firm's actual evaluation rules. Pick your firm from the dropdown and the simulator loads the correct parameters automatically.
| Prop Firm | Drawdown Type | Daily Loss Limit | Profit Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Trader Funding | Trailing | None | 6% (e.g. $3,000 on 50k) |
| FTMO | Static | $5,000 (on 100k) | 10% on Challenge |
| Topstep | Trailing | Yes (scales by size) | 6% (e.g. $3,000 on 50k) |
| My Funded Futures | Trailing | None on Rapid plans | 6% on Rapid |
| FundedNext | Trailing | Yes on Bolt plans, none on Rapid | 5 to 6% |
| Take Profit Trader | Trailing | None | 6% |
| Tradeify | Trailing | Yes on Growth plan | 5 to 6% |
| Lucid Trading | Trailing | None | 5 to 6% |
Trailing drawdown implementations vary by firm. Apex and Tradeify offer both intraday and end-of-day variants; most others use end-of-day balance and lock at the initial balance threshold. The simulator's built-in presets reflect each firm's most common evaluation plan; rules may differ on other plan types.
Not on the list? Hit “Custom” and configure your own profit target, drawdown rule, daily loss limit, and number of trading days. The prop firm simulator works for any evaluation with rule-based criteria.
Frequently Asked Questions
A prop firm challenge simulator uses your real trading statistics — like win rate, average win, and average loss — to estimate how likely you are to pass a proprietary trading firm evaluation. Instead of guessing, you get a data-driven probability based on thousands of simulated trading scenarios.
The simulator runs a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations using your inputs. The results are statistically reliable given the inputs you provide. However, real-world outcomes also depend on factors like psychology, slippage, and changing market conditions that no model can fully capture. Think of the result as a strong estimate, not a guarantee.
Static drawdown sets a fixed dollar floor below your starting balance — your account fails if equity drops below that floor, regardless of how high your balance has grown. Trailing drawdown raises the floor as your equity reaches new highs, so profits tighten the margin for error. Apex uses trailing drawdown, FTMO uses static drawdown, and Topstep uses trailing drawdown with a daily loss limit. This simulator models both types accurately.
You need your win rate (percentage of trades that are profitable), your average winning trade size, and your average losing trade size. If you track your trades with a journal, you already have these numbers. If not, review your last 50–100 trades to calculate them.
The simulator includes built-in presets for Apex Trader Funding, FTMO, Topstep, My Funded Futures, FundedNext, Take Profit Trader, Tradeify, and Lucid Trading. Each preset uses the correct profit target, drawdown type, daily loss limit, and trading days for that firm. You can also set custom parameters to match any prop firm not listed.
A Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that runs thousands of random scenarios based on your inputs to estimate the probability of different outcomes. In this tool, each scenario simulates a full challenge attempt using your win rate, average win, and average loss to determine whether you would hit the profit target or the drawdown limit first.
The sensitivity table shows how your pass rate changes if your win rate is slightly higher or lower than expected. It runs separate simulations at your current win rate plus and minus 5% and 10%, so you can see how sensitive your results are to small changes in performance. This helps you understand your margin of safety.